“It’s important to factor in how people feel”
In the race to combat climate change, sustainable transport systems can play a key role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. As well as focusing on the technological issues at stake, current research also investigates whether there is public acceptance for the changes. Kay Axhausen explains this approach.
The new Center for Sustainable Future Mobility (CSFM) will launch on 6 May with a kickoff symposium at ETH Zurich (see box). Kay Axhausen, Professor of Traffic and Transport Planning, will serve as the inaugural CSFM director. In a conversation with ETH News, he shares his view of the challenges ahead for transport and mobility research.
ETH News: What angle will the new Center for Sustainable Future Mobility adopt towards its field of research?
Kay Axhausen: Research at the CSFM will focus on the transportation of people and goods. We adopt an interdisciplinary approach, looking at what kind of technology and infrastructure, and which economic and political incentives, can help bring about sustainable traffic and transport systems. This also involves considering the people who generate traffic and use the various systems of transport. And we also examine other transport-related issues such as drive systems, emissions, pricing and policy measures. Here, we’ll be hoping to make use of the synergies generated from overlapping interests with colleagues at the Energy Science Center and the Institute of Science, Technology and Policy, all of whom have relevant experience in this field. That said, we’ll be focusing first and foremost on the systemic aspects.
What goals is the CSFM pursuing?
To develop overarching transport solutions that are genuinely sustainable, we need to draw together the approaches of individual research disciplines and work them into a whole. That’s one of our tasks at the CSFM. Our job is to create a shared awareness of the issues involved and to generate synergies and new ideas for society, for companies working in the sector, for the development of new services and also for policymakers. All the existing policy ideas in this area have been exhausted. That’s one of the main reasons for the current blockage in transport thinking right now.
What are the really pressing issues in this field?
That’s the topic of our kickoff event, where we’re planning to launch a dialogue on the challenges facing the sector and the role of research. Right now, we identify three areas where research needs to provide answers. First, there is the decarbonisation of transport, which currently operates largely on fossil fuels and is responsible for around 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions in Switzerland. Then there is the trend towards digitalisation and automation, which is creating new opportunities and technological solutions all the time. It remains to be seen whether these can be developed and applied in such a way that will make transportation more efficient. And, thirdly, there is the question of which infrastructure and regional development policy can help bring about a sustainable transport system for the future.
Which modes of transport are currently growing in importance? And which will lose out following a shift to systems that are more sustainable and climate-friendly?
That’s a very open question right now. We’re no longer in the same situation as we were in the 1950s, when Switzerland and all the other OECD countries made a big bet on the car and over several decades invested heavily in building motorways – along with expanding the rail network for trains and trams. We’re now at a point where the future could take any one of a number of directions. That’s also due to the lockdown during the pandemic, along with working from home and the boom in e-commerce. This has made us question many of the things we thought we knew about driving distances and land use.
What is the relationship between transport policy and housing development?
The two need to be considered together: land use determines how far people need to drive, what modes of transport they use, the level of carbon emissions this generates, and what externalities arise – i.e. the impacts that no one pays or is compensated for. In the case of delivery traffic, for example, the number of kilometres driven depends on the number of warehouses and where they are located.
What’s the situation for private transport?
With private transport, driving distances depend on where people live and work. If, in the future, more people want to live in the country but still work in town, more of them are going to be driving longer distances. Any increase in long-distance transport is likely to expand the role of rail. Any growth in local transport, on the other hand, may give a boost to e-bikes.
“On the basis of scientific research, I can tell you how to improve the transport system. But, ultimately, for changes to become viable, they first require public assent.”Kay Axhausen, Professor of Traffic and Transport Planning
In recent years, we have seen an increase in electric vehicles. What role can electric cars, e-bikes and e-scooters play in a sustainable transport system?
Electric cars help address certain shortcomings in the current transport system. Compared to petrol vehicles, for example, battery-powered cars reduce carbon emissions and also noise. They can even eliminate emissions altogether if they are charged with electricity from renewable resources. E-bikes can travel at higher speeds than normal bikes. They therefore offer longer distances and can partially replace cars and motorbikes. The e-scooter fills a relatively small gap, which may well limit its market success.
For electric vehicles, there are now new car-sharing schemes that work by means of a smartphone app. Will electric vehicles give a boost to rental schemes?
That will depend on the cost of the vehicle. In the 1950s, when cars cost considerably more than they do today, it was much more common to share cars on an informal basis. Generally speaking, electric cars are going to be cheaper and more efficient than today’s petrol and diesel models. That will put a brake on car-sharing schemes. At most, we may see automated, self-driving cars replacing some private cars, like taxis do today. However, the car remains a big status symbol with a strong emotional attachment. That’s difficult to replicate with shared vehicles.
So, in other words, there’s more to creating a sustainable transport system than simply solving the technological issues – you also need to factor in how people feel about such a system?
Absolutely. That’s what we saw in the Swiss referendum on the CO2 Act in 2021. In many ways, the draft bill reflected the findings of research. But it was still rejected. On the basis of scientific research, I can tell you which new instruments and what kind of infrastructure and technology you need in order to improve the transport system. But, ultimately, for these changes to become viable, they first require public assent.
What does that mean for transport research?
It is very clear that there’s no majority acceptance of price increases and road tolls. And that’s despite there being sound economic evidence that these are an effective way of reducing the carbon emissions generated by traffic. This means that, if we want to move transport policy forward, research must also consider the impact that such measures have on people’s lifestyles and how they feel about transport.
What can research contribute here?
The key thing here is to properly test new planning and policy ideas. We need to examine if they really are cheaper and more climate friendly. And we need to find out if they will gain acceptance. We currently have a joint project with the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) and the University of Basel. This is looking at a virtual mobility-pricing system to try and discover under what conditions transport users in conurbations are prepared to pay the actual costs they incur. We need to be running similar experiments in order to test further planning ideas.
One final question: What role do visions play in transport policy?
We need attainable visions. One thing I miss right now is any sense of the enthusiasm that accompanied the programme of motorway-building in the 1940s and ’50s. That expressed something of the optimism of the age – the promise of prosperity, speed, freedom and new horizons. Those images from back then are still in the minds of motorists today, even if their cars now crowd the motorways. What we now need are new images – and I believe that the CSFM can come up with attainable visions that are anchored in technical reality.
Past and future visions of transport
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In the the 1950s and in the 1960s, the car embodied prosperity and freedom. Today, new visions are required for the future of transport. (Photograph: Keystone) -
The future of road transport? Electric cars address certain shortcomings in the current transport system by reducing CO 2 emissions. (Photograph: Adobe Stock)
Center for Sustainable Future Mobility
The Center for Sustainable Future Mobility (CSFM) is a new competence centre at ETH Zurich. Founded in 2021, its mission is to pursue interdisciplinary research into sustainable and climate-friendly traffic and transport systems. It will officially launch on 6 May with a kick-off symposium entitled Sustainable Future Mobility 2022. This is directed at the CSFM members and the research community as well as present and future partners from industry and public bodies.
Comprising a network of some 40 professorial chairs from eight ETH departments, the CFSM is assigned to the Departments of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering (D-BAUG) and of Mechanical and Process Engineering (D-MAVT). As of 2021, it is responsible for coordinating the Mobility Initiative, a strategic partnership established in 2018 between ETH Zurich, SBB, Siemens Mobility and Amag. This has many areas of overlapping interest with the CSFM and also receives the support of the ETH Zurich Foundation.
Reference
Boulouchos B, Hirschberg S, Oswald K (eds.).
external page Pathways to a net zero CO₂ Swiss mobility system.
SCCER Mobility Whitepaper, March 2021. DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000481510