How Ukraine can rebuild its energy system

One of the main targets of Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine is the energy infrastructure. The extent of the destruction is enormous. “One year after the start of the war in February 2022, 76 percent of thermal power plants had been destroyed; now the figure is 95 percent,” says Ukrainian scientist Iryna Doronina. “And all the large hydroelectric power plants have also failed.” The breaching of the Kakhovka dam proved to be particularly devastating. The huge outflow of water – the reservoir covered an area 1.5 times bigger than the canton of Zurich – destroyed thousands of homes and left the reservoir a desert.

Before the war, Doronina was a lecturer at the Kyiv National Economic University; in 2022, she came to ETH Zurich as an SNSF Scholar at Risk. This Swiss National Science Foundation programme provides Swiss universities with financial support so they can give temporary employment to researchers at risk. That’s how Doronina ended up as a Senior Researcher at the ETH Institute of Science, Technology and Policy (ISPT) until 2024. Today, she continues her research at the Technical University of Munich (TUM). In Zurich, she worked closely with the groups led by Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Professor of Planning Landscape and Urban Systems (PLUS), and by Tobias Schmidt, Professor of Energy and Technology Policy and Head of the ISTP.

Together they looked into why renewables should take centre stage in the reconstruction of the Ukrainian electricity system. The corresponding findings, to which researchers from the Technical University of Munich and the University of Bayreuth also made valuable contributions, have now been published in Joule, a leading journal for energy research. “We’ve established that practically all Ukraine’s large, centralised power plants have been attacked since February 2022. This has reduced the total electricity generation capacity to around one-third of the pre-war level,” Schmidt says. “The grid has also been considerably weakened by attacks on transmission lines and substations, particularly in the east of the country.”

Capacity reserves are key to survival

In their study, the researchers combined geospatial and public policy analyses. “Our study presents the first comprehensive, geospatial mapping of Ukraine’s electricity system as it was in February 2022 and its subsequent destruction in the war,” Grêt-Regamey says. “We also show Ukraine’s renewables potential, and we identify the policy and regulatory conditions needed to facilitate investment.”

First, the researchers created a detailed map of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure before 2022. “We wanted to understand the scope of installed power generation capacity, so we mapped 1,626 sites,” Doronina says. “This information on plants and their locations, output, production and consumption serves as the basis for further analysis.” With 59 gigawatts of installed capacity, Ukraine was one of Europe’s biggest electricity producers before 2022. The country itself required 22 gigawatts. “That means Ukraine had considerable capacity reserves, which have helped it to survive during the war,” Doronina states.

Nuclear power plays a significant role. The Zaporizhzhia plant in southwest Ukraine, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, was occupied by Russian troops and hasn’t supplied electricity since September 2022. However, a further three nuclear power plants with seven reactors between them remain operational in the east and south and continue to supply Ukraine with electricity. However, Russia’s repeated attacks on the distribution grid lead to hours-long power cuts, including in the capital city of Kyiv. “That’s why Ukraine should develop a distributed power supply system,” Doronina says. A centralised system is easier to attack, whereas independent systems are more resistant to war and crisis.

Moving to a decentralised energy system

Renewable power plants that harness solar or wind energy are particularly suitable for distributed infrastructure and can be installed much more quickly than centralized conventional plants. “However, municipalities must be able to produce enough renewable energy locally to meet their power needs,” Doronina says.

The researchers created high-resolution maps of Ukraine’s various regions, showing the areas in which power generation from solar and wind energy is most favourable. The team took into account several criteria such as altitude and topography, population density as well as distance to settlements and to power grids. “We meticulously considered protected areas and state agricultural land, ensuring full compliance with the requirements and limitations of Ukrainian legislation,” Doronina says.

Huge potential for solar and wind energy

Next, the researchers estimated energy output by region. This technical potential is enormous. The researchers estimate that the potential for wind energy is around 180 gigawatts, while for solar energy it’s around 39 gigawatts. A total capacity of 219 gigawatts would vastly exceed the generation capacity of 59 gigawatts that Ukraine had at the start of the war. Finally, the researchers found that in all the regional power grids, the potential for renewables far surpasses the power generation capacity destroyed during the war.

The researchers use the technical potential at regional level together with socio-political, economic, environmental and technological factors to determine which regions are most suitable for Ukraine’s transition to renewable energy systems. From a regional perspective, the greatest potential for solar and wind energy lies in the south and east of the country.

Supporting a well-governed new energy system

Until now, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been monopolised by one or two oligarchs. “They had control over the national energy market and worked together with Russia. It was also a breeding ground for corruption,” explains Vasyl Doronin, head of the NGO Ukrainian Hydrogen Association and coauthor of the study.

“The transparency of our results reduces the risk of corruption, as the proposed approaches to prioritise the areas with greater potential and those that urgently need to be redeveloped are scientifically sound and balanced,” Doronina says. “The maps and databases we developed support policymaking and are the fastest way to meet people’s basic energy needs.” In addition, this work improves the quality of project preparation and reduces risk for investors once the investment requirements have been clarified. “This study, a trailblazer in its field, was among the first to consider the requirements of the Renewable Energy Directive III of the EU (RED III), identifying renewable accelerating areas,” Vasyl Doronin says. The results were presented to the European Commission at its Joint Research Center in the Netherlands.

“We want to go back to live in Ukraine again, and we hope our results will help in the country’s further development,” Doronina says. She wants her research to serve as the basis for a manual that will enable Ukrainian communities to switch their energy supply. Her aim is to create an “atlas of the potential for transforming the energy sector”.

Information for the Swiss authorities

What Ukraine is going through might also offer valuable insights for Swiss civil protection. For example, Doronina provided the Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) with detailed information not only on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and its destruction, but also on war damage to the agricultural and education sectors, including schools and kindergartens. “We showed how the war has affected civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, so that the Swiss can see what it actually looks like there and what might happen elsewhere,” Doronina says.

Furthermore, Doronina and her colleagues also presented their research at the event “Re-Thinking Energy Infrastructure: Empowering Decarbonisation – Moving from Strategy to Implementation” which ETH Zurich co-organised last January in the House of Switzerland at the WEF in Davos.